How Political Identity Influences COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Model of Identity-Based Risk Perception

39 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2021

See all articles by Ellie Kyung

Ellie Kyung

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Manoj Thomas

Cornell University - Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management

Aradhna Krishna

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business

Date Written: September 1, 2021

Abstract

Past research suggests that conservatives are usually more threat-sensitive than liberals are. Yet during the COVID-19 pandemic, conservatives consistently underestimated the risk from the virus. To reconcile this paradox, we introduce a model of Identity-based Risk Perception (IRP). This model posits that risk perceptions depend not only on objective risk, but also on people’s political identity and whether the risk pertains to their group identity (group risk) versus individual identity (individual risk). When asked about the group risk posed by a threat (“how many Americans will die of COVID-19?”), conservatives focus on their national pride and underestimate the risk of contracting the virus compared to liberals. However, when asked about individual risk from the same threat (“what is the probability of an individual dying of COVID-19?”), conservatives focus on individual mortality threat and overestimate the risk of succumbing to the virus compared to liberals. Three national surveys support the IRP model.

Keywords: Risk perception, COVID-19, identity, political ideology

JEL Classification: M30

Suggested Citation

Kyung, Ellie and Thomas, Manoj and Krishna, Aradhna, How Political Identity Influences COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Model of Identity-Based Risk Perception (September 1, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3915780 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3915780

Ellie Kyung (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States

Manoj Thomas

Cornell University - Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management ( email )

353 Sage Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
607-255-7207 (Phone)
607-254-4590 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://forum.johnson.cornell.edu/faculty/mthomas/

Aradhna Krishna

University of Michigan, Stephen M. Ross School of Business ( email )

701 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI MI 48109
United States

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