Data and Methodology Documentation for a COVID-19 Risk Calculator: Mortality Rates and Loss of Life Expectancy

We develop careful cohort-based estimates of median life expectancy without COVID, COVID population fatality rates (PFRs) for three areas (Cook County, Illinois; Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and the State of Indiana), and expected life expectancy lost due to COVID. We examine how PFR and lost life expectancy vary with age, gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, and common comorbidities. On average, decedents lose about 12 expected life-years (upward biased estimate). Expected life lost to date for our three areas is around 0.016 years; an estimate for the whole U.S. population is 0.02 years (about one week) (upward biased estimates). Expected life lost rises rapidly with age and can be as high as 3 months for some individuals. Expected life lost for whites and Asians in our three areas is around 0.012, but is roughly double this for Blacks and Hispanics. We also provide data and methodology details underlying the COVID-19 Risk Calculator, available at https://fightcovidmilwaukee.org/risk-assessment-tool.

Note: Funding Statement: BSB: Randomized COVID-19 Testing in Vulnerable Communities and Risk Tool Creation - National Institutes of Health Award 3 UL1 TR001436-06S1

Declaration of Interests: No conflicts.

Ethics Approval Statement: IRB approval - The paper uses only de-identified data, no patient consent is needed or obtained.

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Barreto Parra, Paula Natalia and Atanasov, Vladimir A. and Meurer, John and Whittle, Jeffrey and Luo, Qian and Zhang, Ruohao and Black, Bernard S., Data and Methodology Documentation for a COVID-19 Risk Calculator: Mortality Rates and Loss of Life Expectancy (August 27, 2021). Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 21-02, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3795802 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3795802