ANALISIS REGRESI NON LINEAR PADA DATA PASIEN COVID-19 MENGGUNAKAN METODE BOOTSRAP
Abstract
Dalam penelitian ini membahas tentang analisis regresi non linier dengan menggunakan data statistic perkembangan pasien positif Covid-19 di Indonesia. Penyakit Covid-19 sangat mudah berkembang penyebarannya sehingga WHO menyatakan penyakit ini sebagai pandemi, dalam penelitian ini menggunakan lima model analisis regresi non linier yaitu model Weibull 3 parameter, Gompertz 3 parameter, Log-logistic 3 parameter, Log-Logistic 4 parameter dan model Logistic 3 parameter. Analisis yang terbaik dalam memprediksi yaitu Log-logistic 3 parameter dengan nilai AIC = 6527.434 dan RMSE = 6836.79, dan diperoleh nilai parameter , dan A= 19477000, sehingga pengestimasian parameter dengan menggunakan metode Bootstrap B = 10000 dengan interval kepercayaan 95% untuk parameter , dan A berturut-turut adalah maka diperoleh nilai rata-rata estimas Bootstrap , dan . Pada data prediksi pasien yang positif Covid-19 akan dibandingkan dengan data pengamatan, dari hasil perbandingan diperoleh nilai MAPE = 9%, sehingga dapat dikatakan pemodelan Log-logistic 3 parameter sangat baik dalam memprediksi.
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References
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