Forecasting Indonesia's Life Expectancy During The Covid-19 Period 2021-2026

International Journal of Economics and Management Studies
© 2021 by SSRG - IJEMS Journal
Volume 8 Issue 2
Year of Publication : 2021
Authors : Rizka Malia
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How to Cite?

Rizka Malia, "Forecasting Indonesia's Life Expectancy During The Covid-19 Period 2021-2026," SSRG International Journal of Economics and Management Studies, vol. 8,  no. 2, pp. 105-109, 2021. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/23939125/IJEMS-V8I2P115

Abstract:

The Life Expectancy Rate (AHH) indicates the degree of public health and reflects the success rate of development in the health sector. The higher the AHH, the better the community's health status, and this are supported bye the success in health development. To see how the AHH level will be in the next 5 years, one way that can be done is to predict the time series. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method has the ability to capture the necessary information about the AHH level. This is because ARIMA is a time series forecasting method that is suitable for predicting a number of variables quickly, simply, and accurately and only requires variable data to be predicted. Based on the ARIMA results obtained, the Life Expectancy Rate (AHH) for the 2021-2026 period experienced a growth of 0.3%, much lower than in the past 5 years; this is due to Covid-19 in Indonesia. It is hoped that the relevant government can anticipate the decline in AHH from time to time, and related to the Covid-19 case, it is hoped that policies can anticipate the spread so as to reduce the death rate in Indonesia.

Keywords:

AHH, ARIMA, Covid-19, Forecasting, Time Series

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