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ACADEMIA Letters FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC Luis Demestre Introduction This article presents the results obtained from the analyses applied to the results of a simulation based on the study planned and carried out by the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) on how the public perceives and feels affected by the measures taken by the provincial government to reduce the cases of COVID19 virus infection. The questionnaire was administered by the survey method from April 5 to 8 of the current year (Angus Reid Institute, 2021). The random sample was 1577 Canadian members of the Angus Reid Forum. The sampling error was ± 1.4, with a confidence coefficient of 95%. The measures that the provincial government has imposed to stop the spread of the virus have been questioned for their infectivity. They have been seen as bureaucratic measures that have been a failure (Solomon, 2021). They have been said to be authoritarian restrictions that violate the constitutional right of individual liberty (Pardy, 20121). In general, it can be stated that society expects elected politicians to take a broad view of situations and make balanced decisions. Apparently, measures against COVID lack this balance because, while trying to stop the spread of the virus, they create other socio-economic and personal problems (Hardin, 2021). The institutions of social order are created to normalize society (Berger and Luckman, 1967), and one of the roles that such institutions have in times of crisis is to keep the public Academia Letters, July 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Luis Demestre, demestre@hotmail.com Citation: Demestre, L. (2021). FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC. Academia Letters, Article 1695. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1695. 1 free of fear and well predisposed to face the crisis in order to accept and comply with the measures taken. However, this does not seem to be what is happening. The purpose of this study is focused on this idea. Two statements After an exploratory analysis of the contingency tables published by ARI and based on what was said in the previous paragraph, two models, expressed in the following statements, were established: 1. The public that is not afraid of being contaminated by COVID is a public that is well disposed to deal with the pandemic and is willing to get vaccinated as soon as possible. 2. The public that is not afraid of being contaminated by COVID is a public that is well disposed to deal with the pandemic and positively evaluates the government’s efforts to stop the pandemic. The first statement establishes a relationship between the data of the following items of the applied questionnaire: Q1A. Afraid of being contaminated by the virus: AFR = 1 = afraid, 2 = not afraid Q4. Willingness to deal with the pandemic: WDP = 1 = well disposed, 2 = poorly disposed Q7. Acceptance of the vaccine: ACV = 1 = acceptance, 2 = refusal The second statement relates the item data: Q1A. fear of being contaminated by the virus: AFR = 1 = afraid, 2 = not afraid Q4. The willingness to deal with the pandemic: WDP = 1 = well disposed, 2 = poorly disposed Q6C. The evaluative appreciation of the measures taken by the government: EAG = 1= positive, 2 = negative. These statements imply three concepts: data, model and relationship, which should be defined as they are used in this article. The datum is the link between an answer option of a non-standardized questionnaire and the issue or topic raised in that item. For instance, in the following list each line is a datum. Age11 = 1 = “18 to 34 years old” Age12 = 2 = “35 to 54 years” Age13 = 3 = “55 or older” Sex21 = 1 = “female” Sex22 = 2 = “male” The model is the combination of two or more data from different items of the same questionnaire. For example: Example model = age1= “18 to 34 years” ฀ sex1 = “male”, probability Academia Letters, July 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Luis Demestre, demestre@hotmail.com Citation: Demestre, L. (2021). FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC. Academia Letters, Article 1695. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1695. 2 = 0.14 The information extracted from the example model is: the probability of finding a person in the sample whose age is between 18 and 35 years and is male is 0.14, given that there are six possible combinations drawn from a sample of 3000 people. If the probability of the combination is high and statistically significant, it can be said that the model describes a large sector of the population from which the sample was drawn. The data contained in the model are probabilistically related (Boves and Hartman, 2003). This type of relationship is referred to in this article as a probabilistic informative relationship. Project objectives The objectives of the analytical study were to answer the following questions: 1 Is the probability of finding a person in the population described by the model1, given K possible combinations and a size of N, majority and statistically significant or not? Model1 = AFR = 1 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ ACV = 1) P (Θ1= AFR = 1 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ WDP = 1 / k, n) > P(H0) 2 Is the probability of finding in the population a person described by model 2, given K possible combinations and a sample size N, majority and statistically significant or not? Model2 = AFR = 1 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ EAG = 1) P (Θ2= AFR = 1 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ EAG = 1) > P(H0) Where the probability of the null hypothesis (H0) is less than 0.05 Simulation The simulation was done because the database was required to create the contingency tables necessary to answer the questions posed. The R platform was used to create the database. First a population of 10000 cases was created and from this population a random sample of 3000 cases was selected. The data from the original study were correlated with those obtained in the simulation and a Spearman correlation of 0.99 was found. This result allows us to assume that the data obtained in the simulation are a facsimile of the original data and, therefore, can be assumed to be a feasible sample of the population. The binomial test was applied to obtain the P-values of the probabilities of the frequency distribution of the two contingency tables. Academia Letters, July 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Luis Demestre, demestre@hotmail.com Citation: Demestre, L. (2021). FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC. Academia Letters, Article 1695. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1695. 3 Results The results are obtained from the combinations of data from the models. Model 1 generated 24 combinations and the model 2 generated 8 combinations. Each of the combinations has a certain number of cases. Of these combinations, the two of interest are: the combination corresponding to the model proposed, and the combination opposite to that of the model proposed. The presentation of the results consists of the operational description of the models together with the answers to the questions, the confidence limits and the P-Value. The counter models are included in this presentation. Model 1. The public that is not afraid of being contaminated by COVID is a public that is well disposed to deal with the pandemic and is willing to be vaccinated as soon as possible. P (Θ1= AFR = 2 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ ACV = 1 / K= 24, N = 3000) = 0.29, Li = 0.20, Ls = 0.39, P-Value = 3.216e-05 Counter model 1. The public fears being contaminated by COVID is a public unwilling to deal with the pandemic and does not want to be vaccinated. P (Θmc1= AFR = 2 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ ACV = 3 / K= 24, N = 3000) = 0.01, Li = 0.017, Ls = 0.28, P-Value < 2.2e-16. Model 2. The public that does not fear being contaminated by COVID is a public that is well disposed to deal with the pandemic and positively evaluates government efforts to stop the pandemic. P (Θ2= AFR = 2 ฀ WDP = 1 ฀ EAG = 1 / K = 8, N = 3000) = 0.05, Li = 0.045, Ls = 0.061, P-Value = 2.2e-16 Counter model 1. The public that fears being contaminated by COVID is a public that is ill-disposed in spirit to deal with the pandemic and negatively evaluates government efforts to stop the pandemic. P (Θmc2= TEM = 1฀ EAN = 2฀ EVG = 2/ K = 8, N = 3000) = 0.12, Li = 0.11 Ls = 0.14, P-Value < 2.2e-16 Academia Letters, July 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Luis Demestre, demestre@hotmail.com Citation: Demestre, L. (2021). FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC. Academia Letters, Article 1695. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1695. 4 Conclusion Neither of the two models and counter models identified describes a statistically significant majority of the population. The same is true for the rest of the models that emerged from the two contingency tables that were created to answer the questions. This suggests that the institutions in charge of reducing the spread of the pandemic have not succeeded in creating a climate of confidence in the population to face the crisis in good spirits and accept the vaccine. References Angus Reid Institute (2021, April 26) Vaccine Vacillation: Confidence in AstraZeneca jumps amid increased eligibility; trust in Johnson & Johnson tumbles. https://angusreid.org/ vaccine-astrazeneca-johnson/ Berger, P.L., Luckman, T. (1967) The Social Construction of Reality. A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge. Anchor Books. New York. Boves, L., Hartman, S. (2003) Bayesian Epistemology. Claredon, Oxford Harding, L. (April, 22-28). Balancing Interests When Governing Amid COVID. Pardy, B. (2021, April 22-28) The First Obstacle is Our Confidence that Things Won’t Get Worse. The Epoch Times. Opinion. Solomon, L. (2021, 22-28 April). Public Health Burocrats Double Down on their Failed COVID Polices. The Epoch Times, Opinion Academia Letters, July 2021 ©2021 by the author — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0 Corresponding Author: Luis Demestre, demestre@hotmail.com Citation: Demestre, L. (2021). FEAR OF THE CORONAVIRUS, STATE OF MIND, WILLINGNESS TO BE VACCINATED AND OPINION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT TO STOP THE PANDEMIC. Academia Letters, Article 1695. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1695. 5