Elsevier

Applied Soft Computing

Volume 110, October 2021, 107643
Applied Soft Computing

Real-time prediction of COVID-19 patients health situations using Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Interval Mathematical modeling

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107643Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Death/recovery of COVID-19 patients and ventilator needs are predicted using ANN.

  • Input combinations are examined for ANN predictions.

  • A Patients list for a set of hospitals is selected using the FIM model.

  • Prioritization and Scheduling problem is optimized using a hybrid ANN–FIM​ approach.

Abstract

At the end of 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus caused an outbreak of COVID-19 disease. The spread of this once-in-a-century pathogen increases demand for appropriate medical care, which strains the capacity and resources of hospitals in a critical way. Given the limited time available to prepare for the required demand, health care administrators fear they will not be ready to face patient’s influx. To aid health managers with the Prioritization and Scheduling COVID-19 Patients problem, a tool based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) through the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method, and Operations Research (OR) through a Fuzzy Interval Mathematical model was developed. The results indicated that combining both models provides an effective assessment under scarce initial information to select a suitable list of patients for a set of hospitals. The proposed approach allows to achieve a key goal: minimizing death rates under each hospital constraints of available resources. Furthermore, there is a serious concern regarding the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus which could cause a more severe pandemic. Thus, the main outcome of this study is the application of the above-mentioned approaches, especially when combining them, as efficient tools serving health establishments to manage critical resources.

Keywords

OR in medicine
Scheduling
Prioritization and scheduling COVID-19 patients (PSP)
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method
Fuzzy Interval Mathematical (FIM) model

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