Elsevier

Vaccine

Volume 40, Issue 14, 25 March 2022, Pages 2134-2139
Vaccine

Short communication
Modeling strategies for the allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the United States

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.015Get rights and content

Abstract

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended phased allocation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in December 2020. To support the development of this guidance, we used a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to evaluate the relative impact of three vaccine allocation strategies on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. All three strategies initially prioritized healthcare personnel (HCP) for vaccination. Strategies of subsequently prioritizing adults aged ≥65 years, or a combination of essential workers and adults aged ≥75 years, prevented the most deaths. Meanwhile, prioritizing adults with high-risk medical conditions immediately after HCP prevented the most infections. All three strategies prevented a similar fraction of hospitalizations. While no model is capable of fully capturing the complex social dynamics which shape epidemics, exercises such as this one can be a useful way for policy makers to formalize their assumptions and explore the key features of a problem before making decisions.

Keywords

COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Mathematical Modeling
Vaccines

Abbreviations

SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
COVID-19
coronavirus disease 2019
CDC
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
ACIP
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices

Cited by (0)

1

Present address: Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States.

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