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Was There a Period of Latent Development of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg? Mathematical Simulation Results and Facts

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Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations Aims and scope

Abstract

The hypothesis of a latent period of development of the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg is verified. According to this hypothesis, the appearance of the first patient was preceded by the latent formation of a local variant of the pathogen, caused by the introduction of the pathogen from outside and that occurred asymptomatically in a number of individuals. A mathematical model with two developmental branches, asymptomatic and clinically manifested, is proposed. The possibility of exacerbation of the asymptomatic form or its termination is considered. Other features of the model include accounting for asymptomatic forms, mild and severe forms of the disease, and a decline in the population’s immunity due to the genetic drift of the pathogen. A technique for sequential identification of the considered model in conditions of a shortage of data is proposed. It is demonstrated that verification of the mathematical model requires a sufficiently large number of asymptomatic individuals at the time the first patient was discovered, which is an argument in favor of the validity of the hypothesis.

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  1. St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg, Russia

    I. D. Kolesin & E. M. Zhitkova

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Kolesin, I.D., Zhitkova, E.M. Was There a Period of Latent Development of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg? Mathematical Simulation Results and Facts. Math Models Comput Simul 15, 1037–1044 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S2070048223060133

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