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The impact of public healthcare system on COVID-19 mortality rate in selected European and South Caucasian countries

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Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between public healthcare-related features, vaccination rates, and COVID-19 mortality rates in 44 European and South Caucasian countries. The COVID-19 mortality rates were averaged from 21 November 2021 to 4 December 2021, coinciding with the height of the fourth wave of the pandemic. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator, the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model, and the spatial error (SEM) model. A cluster analysis was then performed to identify homogeneous groupings of nations exhibiting escalating risk variables for COVID-19 mortality. The results indicated that public health expenditure, healthcare personnel, pharmacists, universal health coverage (UHC), and COVID-19 vaccination rates exhibited significant negative correlations with COVID-19 mortality rates, while out-of-pocket (OOP) spending and the saturation of ordinary and intensive care unit (ICU) beds demonstrated significant positive correlations with COVID-19 mortality rates. Cluster analysis indicated that post-communist and post-Soviet European nations with more decentralized and predominantly private insurance-based healthcare systems exhibited the highest risk variables for COVID-19 mortality. In contrast, Nordic European countries with universal healthcare systems demonstrated the lowest risk. Consequently, nations with publicly funded comprehensive healthcare systems have shown greater efficacy in reducing COVID-19 death rates while alleviating the strain on national healthcare systems. These policy recommendations may be beneficial in the event of similar shocks in the future.

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Change history

  • 23 March 2025

    In this article, the tables 4 and 5 (Part B) column's enumeration was incorrect. This has been corrected.

Notes

  1. GDP was expressed in constant 2021 international US dollars at purchasing power parity (PPP), while current health expenditure was given in current US dollars (at PPP) (World Bank 2024). The nations analyzed in this article are detailed in Sect. 3.1.

  2. The countries classified as post-communist or post-Soviet European nations included: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Ukraine.

  3. In fact, the UHC index and current health expenditure per capita were highly and positively correlated, evidenced by a Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.87.

  4. The incorporation of Russia and South Caucasian nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) expanded the sample and addressed the spatial relationship between post-communist and post-Soviet countries inside Europe. They share not only borders but also a similar shift from a national healthcare system to one based on insurance, primarily dependent on direct OOP payments (Rechel and McKee, 2009).

  5. The study omitted control variables such as GDP and GNI, which are commonly employed to assess a nation's wealth due to their strong link with public healthcare indicators. For instance, the average GDP per capita in constant 2021 international US dollars (at PPP) (World Bank, 2024) and the average domestic general government health expenditure per capita in international US dollars (at PPP) (World Health Organization, 2023) exhibited a robust positive correlation during the 2015–2020 timeframe. Pearson's correlation coefficient, calculated at 0.88, was significantly high. For the same reason, air pollutants, although identified in the literature as important contributors to the spread and mortality of COVID-19 (Coccia, 2021; Perone, 2022), were omitted from the empirical investigation. This was a critical factor since simultaneous inclusion in the models would have resulted in significant multicollinearity concerns, distorting the interpretation of the models and yielding erroneous results (Yoo et al., 2014).

  6. Data were obtained from Ritchie and Roser (2019b), except for the Faroe Islands (Statbank, 2023).

  7. Data were sourced from Herre et al. (2023), excepting Azerbaijan (Azerbaijan Tourism Board, 2022), Czech Republic (Czech Statistical Office, 2022), the Faroe Islands (Statistics Faroe Islands, 2023), Ireland (OECD, 2023), Romania (Banila, 2022), and the Slovak Republic (OECD, 2023).

  8. Data were obtained from the World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform (2023), excluding Azerbaijan (ABC.AZ, 2022), and the Faroe Islands (Statistics Faroe Islands, 2021).

  9. No data was provided for the Faroe Islands. Nonetheless, due to their status as a self-governing archipelago inside the Kingdom of Denmark, it was presumed that the Faroe Islands and Denmark possessed equivalent levels of democracy. This enabled the preservation of crucial observations in empirical analysis.

  10. Data were obtained from the World Bank (2023a, 2023b), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Statbank, 2023).

  11. Data were obtained from Ritchie and Roser (2017), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Hákun Leo, 2018).

  12. Data were obtained from Ritchie and Roser (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Frederiksen, 2018), Montenegro (Mugoša et al., 2018), and North Macedonia (Hristovska Mijovic et al., 2020, p.12).

  13. Data were obtained from UNESCO (2023), with the exception of Albania (Government of Albania, 2014, p. 77), and the Faroe Islands (Nordic Council of Ministers, 2017).

  14. I opted to incorporate the female share of the population rather than the male share, as only the former variable demonstrated statistical significance in the multivariate analysis.

  15. The mortality data pertained to the end of 2021, whereas the healthcare factors data (excluding vaccination) primarily corresponded to the period from 2015 to 2020, aligning with the most recent available data at the time of extraction. The discrepancy stems from the fact that healthcare reforms, akin to other policy initiatives, require time to achieve success and exert a significant influence on reality. Consequently, examining the years preceding 2021 offers a more dependable perspective on the healthcare system's framework and assets.

  16. Data were obtained from the World Health Organization (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Statbank, 2023).

  17. Data were obtained from the World Health Organization (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Statbank, 2023).

  18. Data were obtained from the World Health Organization (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Statbank, 2023).

  19. Whereas 100 signifies that 100% of the population is covered by essential health services, and 0 signifies that none is covered.

  20. Total COVID-19 hospitalization data were sourced from Mathieu et al. (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (The Government of the Faroe Islands, 2021), Georgia (Agenda.Ge, 2021), Germany (Robert Koch Institute, 2023), and Moldova (United Nations Moldova, 2021). Data concerning the number of hospital beds per 100,000 people for 2020 (or the most recent year) were sourced from OECD (2022), with the exception of Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, which were obtained from Our World in Data (2023). Data pertaining to the Faroe Islands were obtained from the Faroese Ministry of Health (2023).

  21. Data regarding COVID-19 hospitalizations in ICU were obtained from Mathieu et al. (2023), with the exception of the Faroe Islands (Landspítali University Hospital, 2022), Georgia (Agenda.Ge, 2021), Hungary (Cabinet Office of the Prime Minister of Hungary, 2021), Latvia (National Health Service–Republic of Latvia, 2021), Lithuania (Lietuvos Nacionalinis Radijas ir Televizija, 2022), and Norway (Government.no, 2021). Data on ICU beds per 100,000 inhabitants for 2020 (or the most recent year) were sourced from OECD (2021), with the exception of Armenia (bne IntelliNews, 2020), Bulgaria (OECD/European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies 2021), the Faroe Islands (Landssjúkrahúsið National Hospital, 2023), Georgia (Tarkhnishvili, 2020), Iceland (Fouda et al., 2020), Malta (Farrugia, 2020), Montenegro (European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies 2020), Slovakia (Bauer et al., 2021), Slovenia (Bauer et al., 2021), the UK (Ewbank et al., 2021), and Ukraine (Shulzhenko, 2020). Additionally, it should be noted that the data for Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, and Sweden, pertained to the peak number of ICU beds in 2020.

  22. Data were obtained from Mathieu et al. (2023), with the exception of Luxembourg (The Luxembourg Government, 2021), and Switzerland (Jucker, 2022).

  23. Due to the presence of negative values in the data, a constant is added prior to executing the log-transformation.

  24. For instance, refer to Strauss (2017) for a comprehensive and extensive elucidation of the nuances and characteristics of Ward’s procedure.

  25. The median age was selected instead of the percentage of the population aged 65 or older. The latter was statistically significant solely when ICU bed saturation (at 5%), pharmacists, or the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses provided per 100 persons (both at 10%) were used as explanatory variables. The results are available upon reasonable request.

  26. While OOP was not significant in OLS estimations, it had statistical significance in the spatial analysis (Sect. 5.2).

  27. The lockdown measures significantly impacted international air transport, which served as the primary channel for disease transmission (Krisztin et al., 2020). In this context, it is reasonable to infer that the simplest means of traveling to other countries was via border crossings.

  28. Figure 7 showed a map of the three increasing risk clusters for COVID-19 mortality.

  29. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden were among the Nordic nations. The Faroe Islands were excluded due to insufficient data.

  30. This rationale may also apply to the other post-communist and post-Soviet European nations, which exhibited an average UHC of 71.98% and OOP expenditure of 27.59%.

  31. Switzerland, with a public share of 34.11%, was a significant outlier. This may be attributed to the highly decentralized nature of the Swiss healthcare system, which predominantly depends on compulsory private health insurance (Braendle and Colombier, 2020).

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Correspondence to Gaetano Perone.

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Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 7.

Table 7 Pairwise correlations matrix between control variables

Appendix 2

See Table 8.

Table 8 Pairwise correlations matrix between explanatory variables

Appendix 3

See Table 9.

Table 9 The optimal number of clusters obtained using the “NbClust” package

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Perone, G. The impact of public healthcare system on COVID-19 mortality rate in selected European and South Caucasian countries. Eurasian Econ Rev (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-025-00310-5

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